On November 9, 2016, the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded the Article IV consultation[1] with the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, and considered and endorsed the staff appraisal without a meeting on a lapse of time basis.[2] 

The economy has been growing at a solid pace on the back of strong domestic demand and exports with real GDP now 16 percent above its pre-crisis level. In 2015, GDP growth picked up to 3.8 percent from 3.6 percent in 2014. In 2016H2, growth slowed to 2.2 percent due to investment contraction and weaker credit growth reflecting political uncertainties. Unemployment rate continues to decline. Headline inflation has hovered around zero for the last two years while core inflation turned positive at end-2015. Reflecting exports from the technological and investment zones (TIDZ) and lower oil prices, the trade deficit has narrowed in recent years.

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Извор: ММФ – 21.11.2016

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Economic growth remains solid in much of Central, Eastern, and Southeastern Europe (CESEE). Outside the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), growth has continued at a good pace on the back of accommodative macroeconomic policies as well as buoyant consumption supported by strong real wage and employment growth. In Russia, the pace of economic contraction has moderated, as the economy appears to have adjusted to lower oil prices and the sanctions shock. Other CIS economies are gradually exiting from recessions on improved external demand. For the region as a whole, GDP growth is projected to reach 1.3 percent in 2016 and 2.1 percent in 2017, largely reflecting the improved outlook in the CIS.

Given mediocre prospects for potential growth and a cyclical rebound near completion outside the CIS, current growth may be difficult to sustain. With several years of growth near 3 percent, there are signs that output gaps appear closed outside the CIS, as unemployment rates are falling to pre-crisis levels, real wages are growing strongly, and credit growth is reaccelerating. However, inflationary pressures are still low and external balances healthy. Still, given subdued productivity growth and adverse demographics, these countries may not be able to maintain strong growth without renewed widening of external imbalances.

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Using new qualitative data from nine countries – Bosnia and Herzegovina, FYR Macedonia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kosovo, Kyrgyz Republic, Serbia, Tajikistan and Turkey – including structured focus group discussions and semi-structured in-depth interviews in 43 communities, this report explores factors that have supported or hindered economic mobility and access to jobs among men and women in the region. Listening to people from the region reveals that despite an overall good performance in economic growth, there is a lot of discontent and rising concerns about a disappearing middle class.

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Executive Director of UNAIDS, Michel Sidibé (left) with President of Namibia, Hage Geingob and his wife Monica, at the launch of Get on the Fast-Track: the life-cycle approach to HIV, in Windhoek, Namibia. Photo: UNAIDS

21 November 2016 – The United Nations warned today that while more people than ever are accessing antiretroviral treatment for HIV, girls aged 15 to 24, transitioning to womanhood, face many HIV-related challenges, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, and called for a life-cycle approach to finding solutions for everyone, at all stages of life.

“Young women are facing a triple threat,” said Michel Sidibé, Executive Director of the Joint UN Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS), in a press press release, “they are at high risk of HIV infection, have low rates of HIV testing, and have poor adherence to treatment.”

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